N noduly critical thinking · cognitive biases
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Cognitive Biases

Your brain takes shortcuts. Most of the time they work. The rest of the time they steer you wrong in predictable, named ways — and you can learn to catch yourself doing it.

What a bias actually is

A cognitive bias is a systematic — not random — error in how the mind processes information. The brain runs on fast, low-effort rules of thumb called heuristics (Kahneman & Tversky, 1974). Heuristics are usually good enough; biases are the price you pay when they aren't.

You can't delete a bias. You can recognize when conditions favor one, slow down, and reach for a corrective procedure (a checklist, a calculation, a second opinion).

Two systems, one mind

Kahneman's System 1 is fast, automatic, and effortless — it produces hunches. System 2 is slow, deliberate, and effortful — it does math. Biases live in System 1; the cure is usually to wake System 2 up.

That's why almost every fix on this page looks like a small extra step: write the number down, compare against a base rate, list the opposite, ask a colleague before you anchor.

Filter the catalog

Anchoring lab — feel the pull

The classic Tversky & Kahneman experiment

In 1974, a roulette wheel was rigged to stop on either 10 or 65. Subjects watched it spin, then estimated the percentage of African countries in the UN. Those who saw 10 guessed a median of 25%. Those who saw 65 guessed a median of 45%. The wheel's number — obviously random — pulled their estimate toward it.

Question:

Type your guess, then lock it in to see how far it sits from the anchor and from the real answer.

Base-rate trainer

Why "1% disease + 95% accurate test" is not what you think

You test positive for a disease that affects 1% of the population. The test correctly flags sick people 95% of the time (sensitivity) and correctly clears healthy people 95% of the time (specificity). What's the chance you actually have the disease?

True positives (have it & test +)
False positives (well & test +)
P(disease | positive test)
Per 1,000 people tested
true positive false positive true negative false negative

The lesson: when the base rate is low, even a very accurate test produces mostly false alarms. The intuitive 95% is wrong — most positive tests are well people.

Spot the bias

Read each scenario. Pick the bias most clearly at work. The catalog above defines every option.

Calibration trainer — fight overconfidence

How well do you actually know what you think you know?

For each question, give a 90% confidence interval — a range you're 90% sure contains the true answer. The wider the range, the more likely you'll be right; but a useless-wide range tells you nothing. If you're well-calibrated, the true answer lands inside your range about 9 times out of 10. Most people are over-confident (hit rate under 70%) and don't notice until they track it.

Attempts
0
Hits
0
Hit rate
Target
90%

How to use it: do at least 10 questions to get a meaningful sample. If your hit rate sits below 90%, you are systematically overconfident — widen your ranges. If it sits at 100%, your ranges are uselessly wide — narrow them.

Connect the dots

Quiz

15 questions on cognitive biases.

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Question

Flashcards

Tap to flip. Twenty-four essential biases.

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Mastery: —
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Daily Bias Drill
A fresh real-world scenario every day. Spot the bias.

Teacher mode

Lesson outline, quick-reference card, and a printable worksheet with answer key.

Lesson outline (45 min)

  • 5 min · Hook — Run the anchoring demo live: ask half the class for the last 2 digits of their phone number, then have everyone estimate the number of countries in Africa. Plot. The "high digits" half almost always estimates higher.
  • 10 min · Concept — System 1 / System 2. Why heuristics exist (energy economy). The difference between random error (noise) and systematic error (bias).
  • 10 min · Catalog — Walk the six families: memory, social, probability, belief, ego-protective, decision. Give one fresh example for each.
  • 15 min · Practice — Spot-the-bias scenarios from this module's catalog. Have students argue for two competing labels (e.g. confirmation vs. anchoring) and defend.
  • 5 min · Wrap — Each student writes one bias they recognize in their own thinking this week, plus the specific countermeasure they'll try.

Quick reference — the six families

Memory
availability, hindsight, peak-end
What you can recall warps what you believe is common, predictable, or pleasant.
Social
bandwagon, in-group, FAE
Other people are evidence — sometimes too much evidence, sometimes the wrong kind.
Probability
base-rate, gambler's, conjunction
Intuition is bad at percentages, independence, and conjunctions.
Belief
confirmation, motivated, backfire
Beliefs are sticky. New evidence is filtered to protect what you already think.
Ego-protective
Dunning-Kruger, self-serving, sunk-cost
Self-image guards itself by warping competence assessments and prior commitments.
Decision
anchoring, framing, loss-aversion
The way a choice is presented changes the choice — often more than the choice itself.

Worksheet